TLDR: Expert futurists have used a Delphi study to forecast how rapid technology changes may shape our world by 2040. The study interviewed 12 experts in the future of technologies to determine how particular technologies may develop and change our world over the next 15 years, what risks they might pose, and how to address the challenges that may arise.
Misinformation and the spread of misleading material were identified as significant concerns for the future. Experts predicted that advances in technology will make it much easier for people and bad actors to continue spreading false information, making it harder to distinguish truth from fiction. The experts also highlighted the potential risks of irresponsible AI, with some forecasting that poorly implemented AI could lead to incidents involving multiple deaths. However, other experts disagreed with this view.
Overall, most experts forecasted exponential growth in artificial intelligence (AI) over the next 15 years, but expressed concerns about the development of safe AI and the potential for corner-cutting by nation states seeking competitive advantage. The experts also discussed other technologies such as quantum computing and blockchain, with most agreeing that these technologies will have limited impact by 2040.
The experts offered suggested solutions to mitigate some of the concerns raised, including introducing AI purchasing safety principles and new laws to regulate AI safety. They also emphasized the importance of universities in preparing for the future by offering courses combining technical skills and legislation. The forecasts provided in this study aim to assist policymakers and technology professionals in making strategic decisions around the development and deployment of novel computing technologies.
