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- A survey of machine learning experts shows that AI is expected to bring significant advances in various fields.
- However, between 38% and 51% of respondents believe there is a likelihood of an AI-triggered extinction scenario.
- Experts predict that machines could achieve every possible human task without assistance and even generate a flawless song within the next few years.
- Concerns were raised about the spread of false information, deepfakes, and the potential misuse of AI by authoritarian rulers.
- 70% of experts believe that good outcomes are more likely than bad as AI becomes smarter and more powerful.
A survey of nearly 3,000 machine learning experts has been conducted to examine how AI will impact our lives in the future. The survey found that the majority of respondents believe that AI will lead to remarkable advances in fields such as science, literature, math, music, and architecture, and that these advances will occur earlier than previously predicted. However, the survey also revealed concerns among the respondents, with between 38% and 51% believing that there is at least a 10% likelihood of an AI-triggered extinction scenario.
The study also highlighted some key AI achievements that are expected to be realized in the coming years. For example, experts predict that machines will gain the capacity to achieve every possible human task without human assistance by 2047. This is a significant advancement from the estimated target date of 2060 just two years ago. Other predicted achievements include the ability to generate a video from alternate angles, write a New York Times best-selling novel, and fold laundry. The survey also suggests that machines will be able to generate flawless songs with the style and sound of popular artists like Taylor Swift and The Weeknd within the next couple of years.
While the survey revealed optimism about the potential benefits of AI, it also highlighted concerns about its negative impacts. More than half of the respondents expressed “substantial” or “extreme” concern over troubling AI trends, including the spread of false and misleading information, the use of deepfakes, the potential manipulation of public opinion by authoritarian rulers, and the spreading of inequality by irresponsible users of AI. Three-quarters of respondents believe that more safety research should be done to address these concerns.
Overall, 70% of experts believe that good outcomes are more likely than bad as AI becomes smarter and more powerful. However, the survey serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved in AI development and deployment and the need for careful consideration of its ethical implications.
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